A mere two months ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a through-ball. At that point, as the club went six without a win, the question was if his performances were an indicator or the reason for the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. After Rogers curled home his second to restore the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a club that have just won ten consecutive victories, they look strangely fragile – but at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with some precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more against the Red Devils.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more shots and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge the club must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential England player.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
