A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
